Security Officials Warn of Rising Iran–Israel Tensions Amid Internal Unrest in Tehran

Senior Israeli security officials are voicing growing concern that Iran may seek to escalate regional tensions—particularly with Israel—to divert attention from deepening domestic crises, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares for a high-stakes meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump later this month.

The warnings come amid reports that Netanyahu intends to urge Trump to adopt a tougher stance toward Tehran, including the possibility of renewed military action against Iran’s strategic assets.

Mounting Internal Pressures Inside Iran

According to Israeli assessments, Iran’s internal situation has been deteriorating steadily over the past two years, with conditions worsening significantly following Israel’s recent Operation “Am Kalavi.” The country is grappling with severe shortages of water, electricity, and fuel, alongside the continued erosion of the Iranian rial.

Last week, protests intensified in Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city and one of its most religiously significant centers due to the Imam Reza Shrine. Demonstrations there—sparked primarily by soaring prices—are viewed as particularly alarming for the regime. Mashhad is widely considered a conservative stronghold and a spiritual heart of Shiite Islam, and unrest in the city is seen by analysts as a potential red flag for broader instability.

Fears of External Escalation as a Political Diversion

A senior Israeli security source said the primary concern is that Iran, facing mounting internal and external pressures—especially in its strained relationship with Washington—may attempt to shift focus outward by increasing friction with Israel.

“The regime may seek to redirect public anger away from domestic failures by reigniting external confrontation,” the source said, adding that Israel must weigh its responses carefully.

Another point of concern is the evolving relationship between Iran and Turkey, particularly regarding the future of Syria and broader regional dynamics. This comes as Ankara has hardened its rhetoric toward Israel in recent months, despite the close personal ties between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President Trump.

Iran’s Military Reassessment and Rearmament

Following Operation “Am Kalavi,” Iranian security bodies—including the Revolutionary Guards and the regular army—launched internal investigations into what they described as significant intelligence and operational failures exposed during the confrontation.

Iranian authorities have since initiated a crackdown on individuals suspected of collaborating with Israel, while simultaneously accelerating efforts to rebuild and expand their military capabilities. Israeli defense officials estimate that once Iran replenishes its stockpiles of ballistic missiles, it may adopt a more aggressive posture across the Middle East.

Mossad Director Dedi Barnea has publicly warned that despite damage to Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran’s ambition to acquire nuclear weapons has not disappeared—underscoring, in his words, Israel’s obligation to ensure that such a scenario never materializes.

Netanyahu–Trump Meeting and U.S. Concerns

According to a report by NBC News, Netanyahu is expected to present Trump with options for renewed strikes against Iran during their meeting at the end of the month at Mar-a-Lago. The report cites concerns that Iran has accelerated its missile development and is working to restore air-defense systems damaged in earlier attacks.

Sources familiar with the discussions said Israel is more alarmed by the pace of Iran’s missile and air-defense rehabilitation than by the rebuilding of uranium enrichment facilities.

Netanyahu is expected to argue that Iran’s actions threaten not only Israel but also regional stability and American interests, potentially seeking U.S. participation or support for future military measures.

A political source in Israel responded cautiously to the report, saying: “We will leave the content of the meeting and the issues discussed to the meeting itself.”

Political Debate at Home

The prospect of renewed conflict has also intensified domestic debate in Israel. Critics argue that escalating tensions could serve political purposes, while supporters contend that firm action is necessary to counter Iranian ambitions and deter future threats.

As Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump approaches, Israeli officials are bracing for a critical juncture—one that could shape the next phase of confrontation or containment between Israel, Iran, and the broader region.