Lebanese Army Commander Joseph Awan Elected President Amid U.S. Push for IDF Withdrawal from Lebanon

General Joseph Awan’s election as Lebanon’s new president marks a significant turning point for the country, ending a political deadlock that had lasted more than two years. His rise to power, supported by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and several Arab countries, is expected to prompt increased pressure on Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon by the end of January, as stipulated in a ceasefire agreement.

The election of Awan, a staunch ally of the West, is seen as a major blow to Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian axis in the region. His victory comes at a critical juncture, with international efforts focused on bolstering the Lebanese army’s credibility and securing its position against Hezbollah.

U.S. and Saudi Efforts Key to Awan's Victory

Awan's election was largely facilitated by a coordinated push from the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia, both of which have a vested interest in weakening Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon. A senior U.S. official emphasized that Israel's withdrawal from the western sector of southern Lebanon, including the key city of Naqoura, played a crucial role in the success of Awan's candidacy.

“This was a key point,” the senior official said. “Without this withdrawal, the presidential election would not have ended as it did. The IDF’s pullback gave enormous credibility to the Lebanese Army and General Awan personally, showing that the Lebanese military could deliver on its commitments.”

The ceasefire agreement, brokered in late November, mandates the completion of the IDF's withdrawal from southern Lebanon within 60 days, with the Lebanese army expected to deploy south of the Litani River. The deadline for Israel to adhere to this provision is now fast approaching.

Israel Faces International Pressure on Withdrawal

While Awan’s election is seen as a triumph for the pro-Western camp in Lebanon, Israeli officials have signaled reluctance to fully comply with the withdrawal agreement. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, and senior military commanders have expressed concerns about withdrawing from key positions in southern Lebanon, citing security risks.

During a recent political-security cabinet meeting, Israeli ministers debated whether to leave IDF forces stationed in three critical positions in southern Lebanon. However, this stance risks violating the terms of the ceasefire agreement and could provoke international backlash.

According to a senior Biden administration official, failure to withdraw as promised could place Israel at odds with the international community. "If Israel does not comply with the agreement, it will find itself in conflict with much of the world," the official said. "The message will soon be clear: Israel cannot stay in Lebanon."

Biden Administration and Saudi Arabia Work in Tandem

The Biden administration, working in tandem with Saudi Arabia, has been actively engaged in efforts to push for Awan’s election as president. Over the past several weeks, U.S. officials have coordinated closely with their Saudi counterparts to ensure that the Lebanese political process resulted in Awan’s victory. France and Qatar also played supporting roles in these efforts.

One of the most critical steps in the lead-up to Awan's election was the role of U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, who brokered the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. According to U.S. officials, Hochstein conducted a series of high-level meetings in Beirut and Riyadh to secure the election and ensure Lebanese lawmakers’ support for Awan.

In Riyadh, Hochstein met with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Saudi officials to align strategies on Lebanon’s presidential election. In Beirut, he held hours-long discussions with key Lebanese political figures, including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and Awan himself.

Behind-the-Scenes Diplomacy

A significant part of the diplomatic effort to secure Awan’s election was Hochstein's involvement in convincing key Lebanese political figures to support Awan. Notably, Hochstein met with Samir Jaaja, leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces party, to persuade him to drop his opposition to Awan’s candidacy and instruct his lawmakers to vote for the general.

Hochstein also met with Lebanese lawmakers in a final push before the election. During one such breakfast meeting, a Lebanese lawmaker confronted Hochstein, asking, "Who gives you the right to decide who will be president of Lebanon?" According to U.S. officials, Hochstein responded by emphasizing that while Lebanese lawmakers had the right to vote as they pleased, both the Biden and incoming Trump administrations believed that electing Awan would benefit Lebanon in the long term.

Saudi Influence Plays a Crucial Role

The U.S. envoy’s efforts were further supported by Saudi Arabia, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman playing a pivotal role in the coordination of the Lebanese presidential election. On Tuesday, just before leaving Beirut, Hochstein called Saudi envoy Prince Yazid bin Farhan to continue the pressure on Lebanese lawmakers to vote for Awan.

“The Saudis played a key role,” a senior U.S. official said. “It was essentially a joint effort by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Biden administration to ensure Awan’s election and counter Hezbollah’s influence.”

Implications for Israel and the Region

The election of Joseph Awan as Lebanon's new president is not only a political victory for pro-Western forces but also a significant moment for the broader Middle East. As Lebanon moves forward under Awan's leadership, Israel will be under mounting international pressure to complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon as per the ceasefire agreement. The outcome will likely have far-reaching implications for the delicate balance of power in the region, as well as for the future of Hezbollah and Iran’s influence in Lebanon.

With the deadline for withdrawal fast approaching, Israel faces a critical decision: comply with the terms of the ceasefire and adhere to international expectations, or risk further isolation and potential conflict with the global community.