Eight months after declaring victory in the previous confrontation with Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have embarked on a new and far more ambitious military campaign against the regime in Tehran.
Unlike the 12-day conflict last June, Washington is leading the current operation, though Israel is playing what officials describe as an active and central role. Both leaders are now openly discussing the possibility of toppling the Iranian regime and are urging Iranian citizens to take to the streets and join efforts to challenge the government.
Massive Joint Strikes Across Iran
The joint offensive began early Saturday with extensive airstrikes carried out by American and Israeli fighter jets and drones. Hundreds of targets were hit across Iran, particularly in Tehran and the western regions of the country.
At this stage, neither side has released detailed assessments of the damage. Reports from regional sources indicate attempted strikes against senior Iranian officials, damage to elements of Iran’s ballistic missile array, and attacks on facilities associated with the Revolutionary Guards.
Initial assessments suggest a broader and more complex campaign than last year’s operation, known in Israel as “Am Kalavi.” Security sources describe the reported targeted strikes not as isolated actions but as part of a wider strategy aimed at destabilizing the regime.
Iran Expands the Arena
Tehran responded within hours. In addition to missile launches toward Israel, Iran reportedly fired missiles at the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar — countries that host American military bases but have not formally declared participation in the fighting.
During the June confrontation, Iran avoided a large-scale retaliation after U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, apparently seeking to contain the conflict. This time, however, Iranian leaders appear to view the campaign as an existential threat, raising concerns about rapid escalation and the involvement of additional regional actors.
Particular attention is focused on Yemen’s Houthi movement, which has already issued initial threats. Israeli defense officials say preparations are in place for possible launches from Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, though such attacks have not yet materialized.
“Removing the Threat for the Long Term”
Official statements from Jerusalem — including remarks by the prime minister, the defense minister, and the IDF spokesperson — frame the campaign as a long-term effort to neutralize what Israel defines as a combined strategic threat: Iran’s nuclear program, an accelerated pace of ballistic missile production reportedly reaching dozens per month, and continued support for militant groups across the region.
President Trump has echoed similar language in his public comments.
The Israel Defense Forces have mobilized approximately 70,000 reservists, primarily from the Home Front Command, the Air Force, and training units, in addition to roughly 50,000 personnel already on active duty due to the prolonged security situation. Israeli officials have not released detailed data on missile impacts inside the country, though early indications suggest limited damage and no extraordinary casualty figures.
The Internal Iranian Factor
Analysts note that the campaign’s trajectory may depend in part on developments inside Iran. Both Washington and Jerusalem have signaled that renewed mass protests could weaken the regime from within.
The Iranian leadership has faced domestic unrest in recent years, and U.S. officials have accused Tehran of violently suppressing demonstrators. Still, experts caution that external military pressure alone — particularly if reliant mainly on air power — rarely succeeds in bringing down entrenched regimes without substantial internal mobilization.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains the central authority in Tehran. Whether the current escalation will translate into significant internal political change remains uncertain.
Political Calculations in Jerusalem and Washington
For Netanyahu, the confrontation fits into a decades-long campaign against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Politically, maintaining a multi-front security narrative may also shape the domestic arena, where public debate continues over the government’s handling of past crises.
Trump faces a different calculus. A new Middle Eastern war is not widely popular among the American public, including segments of his political base that favor a more isolationist foreign policy. The decision to escalate reportedly followed prolonged negotiations with Tehran that failed to produce a breakthrough, alongside concerns about leaving large U.S. force deployments in the region idle.
A Crucial Test Ahead
A key question may emerge in the coming days: if Iran signals flexibility regarding limitations on its nuclear program after the initial strikes, will Washington opt for a negotiated arrangement and declare success — or continue toward the more sweeping objective of regime change?
Diplomatic and military officials in both countries acknowledge that a prolonged and costly conflict could reshape political dynamics, particularly in the United States. For now, however, both governments appear committed to pressing forward, even as the risk of a broader regional escalation looms.
Comments