Negotiations between the United States and Iran are set to resume Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland, under Omani mediation. Despite the diplomatic channel, Washington’s threat of military action remains on the table, with a significant US force buildup across the Middle East.
American assets in the region include aircraft carriers, destroyers, advanced fighter jets such as F-22s recently deployed to Israel, and the EC-130H Compass Call aircraft, a key electronic warfare platform.
Satellite imagery reviewed by the Associated Press indicates that the US Navy has temporarily evacuated ships from its Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain — a facility that could be targeted by Iran in the event of hostilities. A similar precautionary move was taken in June following strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, after which Iran attacked targets in Qatar.
Israeli Assessment: “Point of No Return”
Due to the scale of the American deployment, Israeli defense officials reportedly assess that Washington may be nearing a point of no return regarding potential military action.
A senior retired Israeli officer involved in regional affairs said the likelihood of a US strike “is increasing by the hour,” adding that the key questions concern timing, scope and the nature of an initial strike.
Within Israel, Home Front Command officials estimate that the country’s leadership — including the prime minister, defense minister and chief of staff — would receive only short notice before any American action. The public would likely be alerted only if missile launches toward Israel are detected.
Trump Highlights Missile Threat
In his State of the Union address to Congress, US President Donald Trump reiterated that he would not hesitate to confront threats to the United States.
Trump also publicly emphasized Iran’s ballistic missile program, describing it as a strategic threat not only to Israel and US bases abroad but also to Europe and potentially the United States itself.
“They have already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas,” Trump said, adding that Iran is working on missiles capable of reaching American territory.
The remarks were widely interpreted as an effort to frame Iran as a direct national security concern for the American public.
Hezbollah Signals Conditional Restraint
Attention is also focused on how Iran’s regional allies may respond. Israeli security officials are preparing for the possibility of a large-scale ballistic missile assault involving coordinated launches from multiple fronts.
A senior official in Hezbollah told Agence France-Presse that the group would not intervene in a “limited attack” by the United States on Iran. However, the official described any attempt to target Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as a “red line” that would trigger involvement.
Lebanese sources told Reuters that Israel has conveyed warnings — indirectly — that severe damage, including strikes on civilian infrastructure such as Beirut’s airport, could follow if Hezbollah joins a conflict.
According to a report in the Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has communicated assurances from Hezbollah to Lebanese officials that the group does not intend to enter a new war. Berri, leader of the Amal movement, is a key political ally of Hezbollah.
New Sanctions Under “Maximum Pressure”
On the eve of renewed talks, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on more than 30 individuals, companies and vessels allegedly involved in the illicit sale of Iranian oil and in supporting Tehran’s missile and advanced weapons programs.
The US Treasury Department said the measures target Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet” — tankers accused of transporting Iranian oil and petroleum products to foreign markets. Twelve vessels and related companies were sanctioned for shipments reportedly worth hundreds of millions of dollars, including cargoes transported into 2026.
Additional sanctions were placed on procurement networks operating from Iran, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, accused of supplying chemicals and sensitive components used in ballistic missile and drone production, including parts linked to the Shahed UAV program.
Diplomatic Window Narrowing
As negotiations resume in Geneva, both sides face mounting pressure. The substantial US military presence, combined with expanded sanctions and regional warnings, underscores the volatility of the moment.
Whether diplomacy prevails or the region moves toward open confrontation may depend on whether Washington and Tehran can reach a compromise — or whether current deployments evolve into direct military action with far-reaching regional consequences.
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