The price of war: Mounting costs and strategic uncertainty cloud endgame in Iran conflict

No one knows when the war with Iran will end and how, but everyone knows who will decide when it will end — US President Donald Trump. He seems to enjoy and amused when asked when the war will end — and does not provide an answer.
This does not mean that neither the defense establishment nor the political and security cabinet know what the approximate time frame for the end of the war is. Of course, it depends on achievements, and it is likely that if Israel and the US had managed to get their hands on 440 kg of enriched uranium buried (perhaps) in the depths of the Iranian nuclear sites — the war would have ended very quickly.
A mass take to the streets in an attempt to overthrow the regime could also bring the end of the war closer, although there is an internal failure here because as long as there is a war — the Iranian public is afraid to go out. This leaves us with an attempt to understand how long the war will last using money.
A billion shekels a day

This is an especially expensive war — astronomical amounts of armaments, dozens of fighter jets that make the line to Iran every day (and on the opening day, 200 planes), Drones that are in Iran almost 24/7, 60 aircraft that serve as aerial refueling stations (thanks to America), interceptors, reserves, and also a Lebanese arena — which cost around a billion shekels a day. These are only direct security costs without civilian expenses or loss of product.
The first 19 days cost the IDF 20 billion shekels, and the amount allocated for conducting the war amounts to 39 billion shekels. If the budget reflects the estimated time for the duration of the war, it can be concluded that it will last approximately 39 days, which means that there are three weeks left until it ends. Or until the budget ends. This could happen before or after, but it also fits with various statements made in recent days.
There are indeed three weeks left 

If there are indeed three weeks left until the end of the war, then the budget addition that the government approved last week in the amount of 32 billion shekels to the defense budget and another 13 billion shekels as a reserve for the defense and civilian costs of the war is also an underestimate of the cost of the war.
The IDF demanded, at the outbreak of the war, to increase the defense budget from 112 billion shekels to 177 billion shekels. The Ministry of Finance made a move but quickly gave in to pressure from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who ruled that the budget would increase to 144 billion shekels with an option for another 13 billion shekels. The IDF is sharpening its swords in preparation for another round of budget cuts. The Knesset has not yet approved the budget, but even if it is approved, the defense establishment will demand billions of shekels in additional spending. The story is far from over.
 The Ministry of Finance has lost control

The Ministry of Finance has lost control of the budget, and its entire role in this event is to find the financial sources and not to confuse the mind with fiscal rules.
The army's message in this event also reached Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who solemnly announced when the government approved the increase in the defense budget: "This is not an expense, this is an investment." This is how the army is also managing the event. It creates the feeling that there is a historic opportunity here to change the Middle East and dramatically reduce the risks to Israel's security. Iran has been weakened, Hezbollah is under pressure, and if all goes well, we will end this campaign with a major achievement of eliminating threats to Israel for many years. Therefore, it is an investment because if this happens, foreign investments will flow here, defense exports, which have already It will jump, continue the jump, Israel’s risk premium will drop and the rating companies will raise Israel’s credit rating.
The product is security

To those who hear it, it sounds like a text from young and enthusiastic entrepreneurs selling a product and looking for an investor. It really does sound exciting. But unlike ventures that sell a technological product, here the product is security.
If indeed huge achievements are being achieved that increase security and dramatically reduce risks, this raises the question of why maintain annual security budgets that are double the size of what was here before October 7? Either there are achievements and risk reduction that allow for sane security budgets, or the achievements are not large enough or permanent and they require large budgets in the foreseeable future. What is clear is that the public needs to be told the truth.