David Ignatius, veteran diplomatic and security commentator for The Washington Post, expressed cautious optimism yesterday regarding the escalating situation in the Middle East. Relying on American and Israeli sources, Ignatius suggested that there remains a possible way out of the current conflagration. According to him, the Biden administration has managed to deter Iran from launching a widespread attack on Israel, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is showing signs of flexibility on the ceasefire agreement and hostage deal with Hamas. The unknown variable remains Hezbollah, whose intentions are unclear.
President Joe Biden continues to lead efforts to pacify the region. Operating through unofficial back channels with the Iranian regime, Biden is also pressuring Netanyahu to avoid a "catastrophic war" in the Middle East. The president has ordered the deployment of aircraft carriers, destroyers, and fighter jets to the region, reiterating the US commitment to defend Israel.
Iran Reconsiders Actions
Iran is reassessing its position following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. Contrary to initial reports, the assassination was carried out using an explosive device planted in Haniyeh's room in a Revolutionary Guards guest house, rather than a missile strike. The US conveyed warning messages to Iran through the Swiss embassy in Tehran and the Iranian delegation to the UN in New York, indicating that regional escalation could hinder the new president, Massoud Pazkhian, from taking office smoothly.
Netanyahu's Stance on Hostage Deal - Unclear
Ignatius reports that Netanyahu has shown some flexibility in his demands regarding the hostage deal, potentially averting the collapse of negotiations. However, this report has not been confirmed by Israeli sources. There is a possibility that Netanyahu is presenting different positions to different stakeholders, a tactic observed during his recent visit to Washington. His associates argue that continued attacks on Gaza and assassinations of Hamas officials will enable Israel to secure a more favorable agreement. In contrast, senior security officials suggest Netanyahu is stalling to maintain a prolonged conflict without a hostage deal that could destabilize his government.
The Biden administration fears that regional skirmishes could draw the US into the conflict due to its commitment to defend Israel. Administration officials believe there is still an "exit ramp" before a full-blown collision with Iran and Hezbollah. If Israel promotes a hostage deal while the US continues its deterrence efforts, there is hope to halt the escalation.
Hezbollah's Potential Response
The potential for further deterioration depends on Hezbollah's actions and Israel's response. Following the assassination of Fuad Shukar, Hezbollah's chief of staff, in Beirut, the organization may feel compelled to respond aggressively. American and Israeli officials anticipate that Hezbollah's response will likely target military sites, although there are concerns about possible attacks on security sites in central Israel.
The IDF remains on high alert, particularly in the air force, air defense, and Northern Command, preparing for a possible attack by Hezbollah. The intelligence assessment suggests Hezbollah might respond more aggressively than Iran due to its anger over Shukar's assassination, potentially targeting IDF bases in the north or other significant security sites.
By maintaining diplomatic pressure and preparing military defenses, both the US and Israel are working to navigate the complex and volatile situation in the Middle East, hoping to avoid further escalation and achieve a peaceful resolution.
Israel anticipates an inevitable attack following the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukar and Haniyeh. However, officials maintain confidence in Israel's ability to withstand such an attack and caution against exaggerating the threat. They emphasize that neither side desires a regional war.
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