IMF forecast for Israel has been updated upwards - contraction of 5.9% instead of 6.3%

The International Monetary Fund has published its half-yearly global economic forecast (October 2020) and it seeks to dispel some optimism compared to the publication in April 2020. Also in relation to Israel, the forecast is less bad, but still - our recession will be severe compared to other developed countries.
Precisely in the midst of the second wave of the corona, the fund's economists "softened" the recession forecasts published six months ago, and now the global economic contraction in 2020 is expected to stand at 4.4% (real decline in global GDP) instead of 5.2% when the plague broke out earlier this year.
The forecast for Israel has been updated upwards and instead of a contraction of 6.3%, the contraction in GDP is expected to be 5.9%. However, this is a "negative" update since in the previous forecast, the rate of decline in Israeli GDP was expected to be lower than the average in developed economies and in this forecast, the recession in Israel is expected to be higher: the contraction in developed economies is expected to be 5.8%. 2020 - not at the set date - was expected to decline by more than 8% in developed economies and, as mentioned, by 6.3% in Israel.By the way, the recession in Israel is expected to be more severe than expected in developing economies except China (which is expected to grow at a positive rate). 5.7% is the third consecutive reduction.
But cautious optimism ends here. According to the updated forecast, except for China, GDP in both advanced economies and developing economies is expected to remain below 2019 levels next year as well. As some private sector analyzes and estimates show, by 2020, the recovery will be only partial, but mostly unequal between countries and sectors: according to the fund, countries that rely more on "high-impact" services (tourism, catering, hospitality, leisure) and oil exporters face Weaker recovery compared to industry-driven economies.
The fund also explains that this crisis may leave "scars" even in the medium term because the affected labor markets will take time to recover, investments have been halted amid uncertainty and the termination of studies will hurt human capital. "Following the expected rebound in 2021, the global growth rate is expected to gradually slow to only 3.5% in the medium term," the fund's economists estimate.
As for Israel, the fund's economists slightly updated their downward growth in 2021 to 4.9% (instead of 5% in April) when they expect more moderate deflation this year than before (half a percent instead of a decrease of about 2% in April). In addition, Israel's unemployment forecast has been dramatically reduced from 12% to 6%, but there is not much room for joy here: the fund does not take into account workers who have been discharged from the sick as part of the unemployed, in accordance with the official CBS definition. It is also an "average" unemployment rate and not an "end of year".
Until the first quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate in Israel was only about 3.6%. The positive part concerning Israel is the fund's continued optimism about Israel's 'external sector' - ie, the entry of dollars and foreign exchange into Israel for exports of services, capital and foreign investment (which also reflect exits): according to the forecast, both this year and in 2021, The current account in the balance of payments is expected to record a surplus of about 3.5% of GDP, similar to pre-epidemic levels.