CBS: GDP increased by 4.8% in the 4th quarter of 2019 and 3.5% yearly

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by Ifi Reporter Category:Capital Market Feb 16, 2020

New data received from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) led to an update of the GDP in Israel in GDP in 2019 to 3.5%, while the previous CBS publication, as of December 31, estimated The growth by 3.3%.
The update shows that the economy grew faster last year than in 2018 - where GDP grew by 3.4%. GDP per capita grew by 1.6% in 2019, compared with 1.4% in 2018 and 1.3% by 2019, according to the December estimate.
According to the new CBS data released today, the growth rate in the second half of 2019 was 3.8% (annualized, compared with the previous half). This figure indicates acceleration compared to the growth rate in the previous half - 3.6% in the first half of 2019 and 2.7 % In the second half of 2018.
The growth rate in the last quarter of 2019 compared to its predecessor, in annual terms, was 4.8% - the fastest quarterly rate measured in two years. If we compare GDP every quarter to GDP in the same quarter a year earlier (seasonally and in real terms), it turns out that it grew by 3.8% in the last quarter of 2019.
One of the reasons for the growth in the last quarter of 2019 was the fluctuations in vehicle imports, caused by tax changes. In the fourth quarter of 2019, and especially in December, imports of hybrids accelerated towards their tax increase, which came into effect in early January 2020.
The CBS notes that while GDP growth rates rose from 4.5% in the third quarter to 4.8% in the following quarter, if GDP is lowered by net taxes on imports - thus offsetting some of the impact of vehicle imports - growth is declining, from -4% in the third quarter to 3.3% in the fourth quarter.
Another reason for growth in the fourth quarter was a sharp rise in the section of the National Accounts data, reflecting the accumulated inventory of goods in the various sectors of the economy. After the third quarter, the inventory item jumped by NIS 3 billion (at current prices, with no seasonality deduction), and continued to climb NIS 5.3 billion in the fourth quarter. In the first two quarters of 2019, however, the inventory item fell.
The chief economist of Psagot Investment House, Uri Greenfeld, said in an economic review published today that the economy's face slowed, despite strong data on consumption in the fourth quarter of 2019. Of a slowdown in job creation, "Greenfeld wrote.

 A third estimate by the Central Bureau of Statistics showed that gross domestic product (GDP) increased by only 0.6% in the second quarter of 2019. The downward revision of the current estimate (compared with the previous estimate) is mainly due to a decrease in the rate of goods and services exports (excluding diamonds). And start-ups), which saw a 10% increase, following a 10.6% year-over-year increase in the previous quarter (up from a 13.6% increase reported in the previous estimate for this quarter, released in September).
This estimate includes an update of export data, after a 1% increase was reported in the previous two quarters for this quarter, which was published by the CBS last month (September) and the one before it (August).
This is a decline in the growth rate of the economy in the quarter, after an increase of 4.4% in the first quarter of the year, and in the fourth quarter of 2018, an increase of 4.1%. The contraction of GDP in Israel joins a global trend of a fall in GDP in the second quarter.
The moderate increase in GDP in the second quarter of this year reflects a decrease of 0.9% in private consumption expenditure (excluding 7.7% in durable goods) and 7.5% in fixed asset investments, which was affected by a significant decline in vehicle imports.
This is after the increase in car imports in the first quarter of this year, which was due to a change made on April 1 in the green tax, which raised the prices of some of the cars and led to the introduction of vehicle purchases.
The effect of the fall in vehicle purchases in the second quarter is slightly reduced in the median data, according to which gross domestic product increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2019 by an annual rate. This is after 2.8% increases in the second half of 2018 and 3.5% in the first half last year.
 In addition, there was an 11.6% increase in public consumption expenditure. Imports of goods and services also increased by 3%, following a 4% increase in the previous quarter. Excluding security imports, ships, planes and diamonds, imports fell by 1.8% in the quarter, following an increase of 8.6% in the previous quarter in an annual calculation. Import services - including software, transport, communications and tourism services, rose 8.5% year-on-year.
The increase in exports in the second quarter of 2019 reflects an increase in services exports except for start-up companies of 7.5% on an annual basis.
Manufacturing exports rose by 9.6% on an annual basis, while the export of agriculture fell by 22.2% on an annual basis (6.1% on a quarterly basis). Diamond exports fell 34.8% year-on-year (10.2% quarterly) and start-up exports fell, bringing total goods and services exports up 2.3% year-on-year.
The data also show that gross domestic product without net taxes on imports (unaffected by the fall in import tax revenues due to the decrease in vehicle purchases compared to the first quarter - BP) rose by 2.7% in the second quarter of the year, following a 3% increase in the first quarter.

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