Israel Heads to the Polls in High-Stakes Election as Netanyahu Faces Uncertain Path to Power

 Israel is heading into a decisive general election on Tuesday, with polling stations scheduled to open at 7 a.m. as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks another term amid growing political pressure, unresolved questions over the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and continuing security challenges across the region.

The election for the 26th Knesset is the country's first parliamentary vote since the October 7 attack and the subsequent wars in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as Israeli military operations against Iran.

A total of 7,331,981 eligible voters can cast their ballots at 12,018 polling stations across the country, choosing among 36 competing party lists.

The contest pits Netanyahu's Likud-led right-wing and religious coalition against a fragmented opposition whose leading figures include former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, former prime minister Naftali Bennett, former prime minister Yair Lapid, former defense minister Avigdor Liberman and opposition leader Yair Golan.

The latest pre-election polls suggest that Eisenkot's Yashar party has emerged as a leading contender, while Netanyahu's coalition faces difficulties securing the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority. However, the opposition has not established a clear path to forming a government either, leaving the possibility of prolonged coalition negotiations and political deadlock.

Polls Open at 7 a.m. as Millions Prepare to Vote

Most polling stations will be open from 7 a.m. until 10 p.m. Smaller communities with up to 350 eligible voters, along with designated polling stations in hospitals, prisons and certain other institutions, operate on a shorter schedule, generally from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.

Israel's entire territory constitutes a single electoral district. Voters choose a party list rather than an individual candidate, and parliamentary seats are allocated proportionally according to each list's share of the vote.

A party must obtain at least 3.25% of the valid vote to qualify for representation in the 120-seat Knesset.

The threshold makes the performance of smaller parties particularly important. A party that falls below it receives no seats, and votes cast for it do not contribute to parliamentary representation. The outcome can therefore depend not only on the popularity of the major parties but also on whether smaller lists cross the threshold.

Election Day is a statutory public holiday, although essential services and many businesses continue to operate.

Netanyahu Faces His Toughest Political Test Since October 7

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is seeking to preserve his political dominance after a period marked by unprecedented security failures, regional conflict and domestic controversy.

His supporters regard him as an experienced leader capable of confronting Iran and maintaining Israel's security. They argue that his government has strengthened Israel's military position and that a continued right-wing government is necessary to pursue the country's strategic objectives.

His opponents, however, argue that the October 7 attack represents a fundamental failure of national leadership and that Netanyahu has resisted taking sufficient responsibility for the events leading up to the massacre.

The prime minister has rejected calls for an independent state commission of inquiry into the political, intelligence and military failures surrounding the attack. The dispute over how the investigation should be conducted has become a central element of the campaign.

Netanyahu is also standing trial in Israel on corruption charges, which he denies. His leadership and government's policies on religion and state have drawn criticism from a broad range of voters.

Despite these challenges, Netanyahu remains a formidable political figure, and his allies retain a substantial organizational and electoral base.

Gadi Eisenkot Emerges as a Leading Challenger

Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot has become one of the principal challengers to Netanyahu through his centrist Yashar party.

Eisenkot has emphasized security, institutional accountability and restoring public trust in government. His military background allows him to present himself as a security-focused alternative to Netanyahu, while his criticism of the government's handling of October 7 has appealed to voters demanding political change.

Eisenkot's personal experience has also shaped his campaign: his son Gal was killed while serving in Gaza during the war.

Other major opposition figures include Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, whose Together alliance combines right-wing and centrist political traditions. The partnership seeks to broaden the opposition's appeal beyond voters who traditionally support center-left parties.

Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party appeals particularly to secular right-wing voters and has been sharply critical of Netanyahu's reliance on ultra-Orthodox coalition partners.

Yair Golan leads the Democrats, a left-wing party that combines elements of the former Labor and Meretz political traditions.

Although these parties share opposition to Netanyahu's continued leadership, they differ on economic policy, religion and state, Palestinian issues and the composition of a possible future government.

Final Polls Show No Clear Parliamentary Majority

The final television polls published before Election Day placed Yashar ahead of Likud, but none established an unequivocal route to a 61-seat majority.

Polls published by KAN 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13 on October 23 projected the following results:

• Yashar: 22–23 seats.

• Likud: 19–21 seats.

• Together, led by Bennett and Lapid: 14–15 seats.

• The Democrats: approximately 8–10 seats.

• Yisrael Beiteinu: approximately 8 seats.

The five parties in Netanyahu's outgoing coalition were projected to win a combined 50 seats in all three major television polls.

The principal Zionist opposition parties were projected to win between 52 and 56 seats, while the Arab party lists were projected to receive between 14 and 16 seats.

These figures are polling estimates, not election results, and the final distribution could differ substantially.

The central challenge for Netanyahu is whether his traditional coalition partners can secure a majority. The opposition faces a different problem: even if its parties collectively outperform the governing bloc, ideological divisions and disagreements over cooperation with Arab parties could prevent them from forming a viable government.

Smaller lists could prove decisive. Whether they cross the electoral threshold may change the distribution of seats and the balance between the competing political camps.

Arab Voter Turnout Could Play a Significant Role

The participation of Arab citizens of Israel is another important variable in the election.

The principal Arab political forces include the Joint List and the United Arab List, known as Ra'am. Their combined parliamentary strength could influence coalition calculations, although opposition parties differ over whether they would accept formal coalition participation or rely on Arab parties for external support.

Turnout in Arab communities has historically varied between elections. A significant increase or decrease could affect the number of seats allocated to Arab parties and the wider balance in the Knesset.

The crucial issue is not turnout alone, but how votes are distributed among lists and whether those lists pass the electoral threshold.

In a closely divided parliament, even a relatively small change in representation can affect the coalition arithmetic.

The Haredi Draft Dispute Puts Pressure on Netanyahu's Coalition

The exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men from compulsory military service has become one of the election's most contentious domestic issues.

Netanyahu has relied on the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties to sustain his coalition. Their opposition to broad changes in military-service arrangements has generated growing anger among Israelis who believe the burden of military service should be shared more equitably.

The issue has become particularly sensitive amid prolonged military operations and continuing pressure on the Israel Defense Forces to maintain sufficient personnel.

Opposition parties have argued that the existing arrangements are unsustainable and that legislation must establish a more equitable framework for military service.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, faces the challenge of balancing demands from the military and the broader electorate against the requirements of his religious coalition partners.

The result could influence not only the next government's composition but also its ability to pass legislation and maintain political stability.

Security, Iran and the Future of Israel's Regional Policy

National security remains central to the campaign following the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and Israel's confrontation with Iran.

Netanyahu has presented himself as the candidate best positioned to confront regional threats, arguing that Israel must preserve its freedom to conduct military operations against adversaries.

Opposition parties also emphasize national security but criticize aspects of the government's strategic decisions, its management of the October 7 aftermath and the relationship between military objectives and political considerations.

The future of Israel's relations with Washington, the management of threats from Iran and Hezbollah, and the long-term direction of the war in Gaza remain major strategic questions for the next government.

The election also carries implications for Israel's international standing, particularly in relation to the Palestinians, settlement policy and growing diplomatic tensions with some Western countries.

The Cost of Living and the Economic Consequences of War

Economic pressures are another major concern for voters.

The wars have required increased defense spending, while households and businesses continue to contend with the cost of living, higher public expenditure and uncertainty over the country's economic outlook.

The next government will face competing demands to maintain military readiness, support communities affected by the fighting, rebuild damaged areas and manage public finances.

The political debate also includes questions about the distribution of state resources, the participation of ultra-Orthodox men in the workforce and the economic implications of Israel's international relationships.

The election will therefore determine not only the direction of security policy but also how the government allocates resources and distributes the economic burden of the conflict.

October 7 Remains at the Center of the Campaign

For many families of victims and survivors, the election represents an opportunity to demand accountability for the failures that preceded the October 7 attack.

At Kibbutz Be'eri, one of the communities devastated by the Hamas assault, residents have continued to call for a comprehensive investigation into the decisions and failures that allowed the attack to unfold.

The government and opposition remain divided over the form such an inquiry should take. Netanyahu has resisted calls for an independent state commission of inquiry, while opposition parties have argued that a government-appointed panel would not provide sufficient independence.

The question has become a symbol of the broader debate about political responsibility, public trust and the future of Israel's institutions.

Even if Netanyahu were to lose his parliamentary majority, the election would not itself resolve the question of responsibility for October 7. The composition of the next government would, however, influence whether and how an independent investigation is established.

What Happens After the Vote?

Once voting ends, ballots will be counted and preliminary results will begin to emerge. The final allocation of seats will depend on the official count, the electoral threshold and the proportional distribution of mandates.

After the results are finalized, President Isaac Herzog will consult party representatives before deciding which member of the Knesset should receive the mandate to form a government.

The designated candidate must assemble a coalition capable of securing the support of at least 61 of the Knesset's 120 members.

If no clear majority emerges, negotiations could continue for an extended period. The election may therefore determine the relative strength of the political camps without immediately settling who will govern.

A National Decision With Regional Consequences

Israel's election is taking place at a defining moment for its political system and national security.

Netanyahu is seeking to retain power after nearly three years of profound upheaval. Eisenkot and other opposition leaders are attempting to translate public dissatisfaction into a parliamentary majority, but their ability to cooperate remains uncertain.

The outcome will shape the next government's approach to the October 7 investigation, military-service obligations, the economy, relations with Washington and Israel's regional strategy.

For voters, the decision is not simply whether Netanyahu remains prime minister. It is also a choice over the leadership, institutions and policy priorities that will guide Israel through the next phase of its security and political challenges.

The ballots will determine the composition of the next Knesset. Whether they produce a stable government—or another prolonged period of political uncertainty—will depend on the final seat distribution and the coalition negotiations that follow.