Likud Primaries today Become a Crucial Test for Netanyahu and the Party’s Future

The Likud primaries have emerged as one of the defining moments of Israel’s 2026 election campaign—even before a single ballot was cast. The party is completing a full four-year term marked by two historic events that profoundly reshaped Israeli politics: the judicial overhaul that triggered one of the country’s most intense political crises in decades, and the October 7 massacre that transformed Israel’s security and political reality.

The significance of the primaries extends far beyond the personal fate of individual ministers and Knesset members. At stake is the direction of the Likud itself—and the question of what kind of party will face voters in the 2026 general election.

The roughly 140,000 registered Likud members who participated in the primaries are effectively determining the party’s public face for the next election. Their choices will provide an indication of whether the party is moving toward a more hard-line and activist political identity, or whether it will seek to present a broader and more moderate image to the general electorate.

The “Gottliebism” Test

One of the most closely watched questions is the political strength of MK Tali Gottlieb, whose popularity among Likud members has challenged the party’s traditional political machinery.

Gottlieb represents an unusual model within the Likud. Unlike many politicians who build their power through years of cultivating party activists, attending branch events and maintaining relationships with members of the party's institutions, she has largely operated outside that traditional system.

Nevertheless, she has developed a significant following among Likud voters.

The term “Gottliebism” was coined by MK Eliyahu Revivo, who decided not to compete in the primaries and argued that the current system leaves insufficient room for politicians who do not operate through the traditional party apparatus.

While Revivo used the term critically, there is a substantial constituency within the Likud that identifies positively with Gottlieb's political style.

Her performance in the primaries is therefore likely to become one of the clearest indicators of whether the traditional Likud machine still controls the party—or whether a new form of grassroots political power is emerging.

Who Will Be the Leading Woman in Likud?

Another major battle concerns the position of the highest-ranking woman on the Likud list.

The party has traditionally been dominated by male politicians, making the competition among its female candidates particularly significant.

One of the central questions is whether Minister Miri Regev will retain her position or whether the preferences of Likud members will produce a different outcome.

At the same time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly thrown his support behind Dr. Ruth Kabessa Abramson for the new-woman slot, which is reserved for position No. 34 on the party list.

Abramson, a well-known figure on the Israeli right, is running for the position for the first time. Netanyahu reportedly views her as a potential addition capable of refreshing the party's electoral image.

According to reports, branch leaders aligned with Netanyahu were instructed to include Abramson on their recommended lists and remove competing candidates from those recommendations.

Netanyahu’s Quiet but Significant Influence

Although Netanyahu has sought to project an image of detachment from the primaries, people who have worked with him for years say that his apparent indifference should not be taken at face value.

On election day, major Likud membership recruiters and mayors aligned with Netanyahu traditionally consult with him before finalizing their recommendations.

By the time the polls close, Netanyahu is often able to assess the direction of the vote and determine which candidates close to him are likely to secure Knesset positions.

This time, however, the stakes are considerably higher.

Netanyahu needs a Likud list that can simultaneously satisfy the party's activist base and appeal to the much larger group of Likud voters who are not party members but repeatedly vote for the party in national elections.

This divide may be the most important political question emerging from the primaries.

The 140,000 registered members represent only a fraction of the millions of Israelis who traditionally vote Likud. Their political preferences do not necessarily mirror those of the party's broader electorate.

That creates a potential dilemma for Netanyahu.

A list that reflects the ideological preferences of the party's activists may strengthen the Likud's core support but make it harder to attract centrist voters in the general election. Conversely, a list perceived as too moderate could alienate the activists who determine the party's internal rankings.

The primaries will therefore serve as an unusually revealing test of the gap between the Likud's institutional base and its broader electoral base.

Question of Netanyahu’s Future Leadership

The political positioning of Ministers Israel Katz and Haim Katz will also come under scrutiny once the primaries are over.

Both have already secured their positions on the list through reserved placements, avoiding what is widely regarded as one of the most difficult Likud primary contests in recent years.

Israel Katz, who has largely avoided openly challenging Netanyahu, has maintained a position of political caution while positioning himself for the future.

Haim Katz, meanwhile, has emerged as an important organizational force within the Likud and has played a significant role in helping Netanyahu reshape the party's internal political structure.

Their conduct after the primaries could provide clues about the balance of power inside the party and the potential succession battle that may eventually emerge.

Nir Barkat Faces a Political Test

Minister Nir Barkat is another figure whose performance will be closely watched.

Reports have alleged that Barkat sought to remove Netanyahu shortly after October 7, an allegation Barkat has denied. His associates subsequently attempted to arrange a meeting with Netanyahu, but the prime minister's office reportedly rejected the request.

The episode has left Barkat facing an additional political challenge: demonstrating his strength inside the party while simultaneously managing his relationship with Netanyahu.

His performance in the primaries could therefore have implications extending beyond his immediate political standing.

David Bitan’s Growing Independence

MK David Bitan is also attracting attention.

Bitan strengthened his political position during the current Knesset term and has recently expressed strong opposition to some of Netanyahu's proposals for reserved positions on the Likud list.

His confrontation with Netanyahu during a meeting of the party's constitutional committee underscored the growing independence of some senior Likud figures.

Bitan's performance will offer another indication of whether Netanyahu retains the ability to control the party's internal political machinery.

Ultimately, the Likud primaries are about more than ranking candidates.

They are about defining the party that Netanyahu will present to the Israeli electorate in 2026.

The next Likud list will need to reconcile competing demands: loyalty to Netanyahu, ideological commitment, electoral appeal, governmental experience and the ability to project a sense of political responsibility.

For Netanyahu, the ideal list would be disciplined, loyal and cohesive—but also sufficiently broad and statesmanlike to appeal to voters beyond the party's core membership.

The results will therefore provide an early indication of whether the Likud is preparing for the next election as a traditional governing party seeking to broaden its appeal, or as a more activist movement increasingly shaped by its ideological grassroots.