Likud Primaries: Netanyahu Praises Results, but Sources Say He Wants the Primaries Behind Him

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declared after the Likud primaries closed Monday that the prime minister was "very pleased" with the results and congratulated those elected to the party's Knesset slate.

Behind the scenes, however, sources close to Netanyahu describe a considerably more complicated picture. According to one source, the prime minister is concerned about the state of the party and is "especially interested in putting the primaries behind him."

"Primaries are usually an opportunity to talk about a party in a positive context," the source said. "In Likud's case, the opposite happened."

The prominence of MK Tali Gottlieb in the campaign, as well as controversy surrounding Defense Minister Israel Katz's participation in a political event while a Cabinet meeting was taking place, did little to improve the party's public image.

Voter Turnout Raises Concern

Turnout in the Likud primaries stood at approximately 53%, about five percentage points lower than in the previous primaries.

Party officials say the figure is even less encouraging when organized voting blocs are taken into account. Some voters participating through political deals were not regular Likud members, including approximately 4,000 participants associated with the party's ultra-Orthodox membership drive.

"When you consider the importance of these primaries, in which half the list is being replaced, the level of voter apathy makes the situation very serious," a Likud source said.

The relatively low turnout may indicate that the party's internal political machinery is failing to generate enthusiasm even among its own membership at a critical moment ahead of the 2026 general election.

The Battle Between Party Deals and Independent Voters

Likud members can broadly be divided into two groups: approximately 40% who are organized through political blocs, or "deals," and the remainder who vote independently.

These blocs traditionally exercise considerable influence over primary results. This year, however, their power appears to have been particularly significant.

According to Likud sources, the increased influence of the blocs was linked to Netanyahu's decision to reserve positions on the party list for Ministers Israel Katz and Haim Katz.

In return for the reserved positions, sources said, Netanyahu expected the two ministers to incorporate candidates he wanted to promote into their respective political alliances.

The arrangement appears to have benefited MK Ofir Katz, one of Netanyahu's most loyal political allies, who finished fifth.

According to assessments within the party, his strong result was driven less by an unusually high public profile or an exceptional grassroots campaign and more by the political alliances through which Netanyahu promoted him.

Eli Cohen Emerges as the Primary Winner

The strongest individual result went to Eli Cohen, who finished first.

Cohen already had a powerful organizational base and played an important role in the political alliances formed within the Likud. He finished second in the previous primaries.

His latest victory, however, is being attributed by party insiders to another factor: his ability to avoid becoming the target of "elimination lists."

Within Likud, rival political camps sometimes attempt to weaken competitors by excluding them from voting agreements. These so-called "negative deals" are designed to prevent specific candidates from receiving support from multiple organized groups.

Cohen succeeded in maintaining relatively strong relationships with senior figures across the party, limiting the number of factions willing to work against him.

Several Prominent Figures Fail to Make the List

The results also produced significant casualties.

Several prominent and outspoken figures, including former minister Idit Silman, Minister May Golan, MK Nissim Vaturi and MK Hanoch Milwidsky, failed to secure positions that would guarantee them a place in the next Knesset.

At the same time, other controversial figures managed to survive the contest.

Gottlieb, who was pushed away from Netanyahu's political alliances and the major support groups, nevertheless secured 12th place.

Her success is particularly significant because it appears to have been achieved largely through independent voters rather than the traditional party machine. She conducted an extensive grassroots campaign aimed directly at Likud members.

Alongside Gottlieb, figures including Almog Cohen, Amichai Chikli, David Amsalem and Moshe Saada also secured positions in the second and third tiers of the list.

The "Gottliebism" Phenomenon Survives

Gottlieb's performance may ultimately prove to be one of the most important political messages emerging from the primaries.

Her 12th-place finish demonstrates that a candidate can achieve a strong result without being fully integrated into the traditional network of political deals and party activists.

"It is not the revolution Netanyahu hoped to achieve," one Likud source acknowledged. "He hoped it would help bring back another three or four moderate mandates that are no longer with him."

The implication is clear: Netanyahu may have wanted the primaries to produce a more disciplined and electorally broad Likud, capable of attracting moderate voters who have drifted away from the party.

Instead, the results produced a more complicated picture.

Netanyahu Has Not Fully Won the Battle Over Likud's Direction

The primaries had been widely viewed within Likud as a referendum on the party's future direction: would it move toward greater ideological rigidity, or would it seek to moderate its public image ahead of the general election?

The results suggest that neither side has won decisively.

On one hand, several prominent hard-line politicians were pushed out, while figures associated with Netanyahu's political camp performed strongly.

On the other, Gottlieb's success among independent voters demonstrates that the party's grassroots remain receptive to a highly confrontational political style.

The influence of organized blocs further complicates the picture. Their ability to determine rankings does not necessarily reflect the preferences of the broader Likud electorate.

A Difficult Road to the 2026 Election

For Netanyahu, the challenge now moves beyond the internal contest.

The Likud leader must transform a divisive primary campaign into an election campaign capable of appealing to the millions of Israelis who vote for the party but are not members of it.

That means balancing loyalty to the party's activist base with the need to regain moderate voters.

The final list contains both experienced ministers and highly ideological figures, while several prominent incumbents have been eliminated.

The result is therefore neither the sweeping transformation Netanyahu may have wanted nor a clear rejection of the party's current political direction.