Corona Cabinet experts: since November is a decline in the level of vaccine effectiveness

Experts advising the Ministry of Health and the Corona Cabinet claim that since the beginning of November there has been a decline in the level of vaccine effectiveness and that there are clear signs of another outbreak of the disease. At the Corona Cabinet hearing held tonight (Tuesday), Prime Minister Naftali Bennett instructed to promote an antigen test operation in the education system ahead of returning to school after the Hanukkah holiday. It was also decided at the hearing to extend the green label regulations for another two weeks, subject to the approval of the Knesset's Constitution Committee.
In a presentation presented by Prof. Eran Segal from the Weizmann Institute to the Cabinet, he claimed that the level of immunity had begun to decline since the beginning of the month, and that the increase in the number of infected corresponded to the decrease in immunity. According to Segal, the reasons for the increase in the coefficient of infection are a decrease in adherence to the guidelines and an increase in infections in children, along with a decrease in general immunity both among recovering people and among recipients of both doses and the booster dose. Segal suggested concentrating efforts on raising the immunization rate. "To avoid a fifth wave of illness one should vaccinate children, entitled to a booster who has not been taken yet and as much as possible from the unvaccinated," he said.
In addition, a team of experts from the Hebrew University published a report on Tuesday evening that also indicates clear signs of the onset of another wave of illness. "For a significant increase in the coefficient of infection," it was written.
According to the strict scenario presented by the experts from the Hebrew University, if the upward trend in morbidity continues, there will be 2,500 verified daily by the end of December. The optimistic scenario speaks of about a thousand verified daily, and about 1,600 according to the reasonable scenario.
A report by the Cabinet of Experts for the Fight against Corona, which convened last night, also warns of another wave of morbidity. At the current point in time, there is still no clear evidence of a significant outbreak - but there is a significant likelihood of it occurring, "the report said.
Experts note in the report that more than a third of the population is not vaccinated, so there is a high level of vulnerability.
Experts believe that vaccinating children is likely to have a positive effect on morbidity trends, but this will take time. Therefore, "In the current reality, it is not possible to rely solely on vaccines to stop the wave, and the range of effective measures to reduce morbidity in the community that do not harm the economy must continue to be maintained," the report said. The experts also recommend that additional tests be performed on returnees from abroad within three to five days of their return to Israel.
Experts disagree on whether to cancel some of the recent reliefs - such as the green death exemption at cultural and sporting events with up to 100 participants taking place indoors - so at this stage they have not recommended canceling the reliefs. They stressed the importance of enforcing existing guidelines during Hanukkah, and in particular in activities designed for children.
The morbidity data have recorded a significant jump in recent days, and the infection rate has risen to 1.09. Professionals, including senior officials in the Ministry of Health, find it difficult to pinpoint a single significant cause of the increase in morbidity. Corona Commissioner Prof. Salman Zarqa said yesterday that the Ministry of Health did not identify any abnormal outbreaks, "red" areas or patterns of spread.
As a result, professionals estimate that morbidity is increasing due to a combination of laxity in adhering to guidelines, staying in enclosed spaces due to the winter season and a certain increase in infection between children, alongside a decline in vaccine efficacy among vaccinated two-dose vaccines. At this stage, due to a lack of data, the experts are also having difficulty determining whether the impulse dose is declining and at what rate.