CBS downgrades estimates of Gross domestic product: increased by 4.8% in the first Q

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by Ifi Reporter Category:Banking Jun 16, 2019

Gross domestic product increased by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the second estimate published by the Central Bureau of Statistics on Sunday. This increase is more moderate than the previous estimate for the first quarter published last month, which reported an increase of 5.2%.
Although the Central Bureau of Statistics has revised its growth rate in the first quarter downwards, this is still an impressive figure, reflecting an increase in the economy's growth rate, by 3.8% in the fourth quarter and 3.8% in the third quarter of 2018.
The third quarter of 2017 was the last in which growth of more than 4%, then the economy grew by 5%. It should be noted that next month, an additional third estimate is expected for the first quarter, which will be based on more updated data.
The increase in the growth rate is explained by an increase in private consumption expenditure and in investments in fixed assets, which were affected by an exceptional increase in vehicle imports in the quarter. The increase in vehicle imports was due to the change in the green tax, which had already been paid on April 1, which caused some of the cars to go ahead before the change, even during the first quarter, in order to avoid the increase.
Growth also contributed to an increase of 3.9% in exports of goods and services (excluding diamonds and start-ups). Public consumption expenditure increased by 1.1%, and imports of goods and services (excluding defense imports, ships, aircraft and diamonds) increased by 14.6%, following an increase of 12.9% in the previous quarter.
The data also indicate that private consumption expenditure increased by 6.6% in the first quarter in annual terms, which means an increase of 4.7% in private consumption expenditure per capita, following an annual increase of 5% in the previous quarter. This increase was mainly affected by an exceptional increase of 83.6% in the expenditure on durable goods per capita (including furniture, household equipment such as refrigerators, washing machines and temperaments, as well as personal vehicles), after an increase of 28.5% in the previous quarter.

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